The May 17 budget bumps half-worked.
- Online Course is the big winner. Conversions doubled (+107%), conversion value up 156% ($1,680 → $4,305), CPA dropped 18%. ROAS sitting at 3.35x. Worth every dollar of the budget bump.
- Brand Search has a leak. We spent 3.5x more but got the SAME 3 conversions. CPA quadrupled. Why: we're now bidding on every "lash nation X" variant including non-buyer queries like "lash nation reviews" and "lash nation supplies." Need negative keywords + tCPA reset.
- In-Salon is doing more than Google says. 3 real in-salon enrolments closed in the last 14 days = ~$5,991 revenue. Google attributes 0.33. The "in-salon → Brand Search → convert" attribution path is masking what this campaign is actually generating. Bump the budget anyway.
3 real in-salon enrolments. Google credits 0.33.
Lash Nation closed 3 in-salon enrolments in the last 14 days — roughly $5,991 in revenue at the $1,997 group price. Of those: 1 came through Google (credited to Brand Search, not the In-Salon campaign). The other 2 came through non-paid channels (organic / IG / word-of-mouth / returning customers).
This matters because the In-Salon campaign looks like it's failing in the dashboard (0.33 conv) but it's actually doing assist work — driving awareness and consideration that converts on Brand Search a few days later. Last-click attribution at low volume always favors Brand Search because that's the searcher's final click before they buy.
What this means: still bump In-Salon to $30/day. More in-salon visibility = more downstream Brand Search conversions + more direct enrolments via IG/organic. Don't kill the campaign because the dashboard is undercounting it. If we also include the In-Salon revenue Google missed, real account-wide value is ~$10,930 — making true ROAS closer to 6x, not 3.83x.
The headline numbers
14 days vs prior 14 days · all three campaigns combined
The numbers split into two stories: Online Course is converting brilliantly post-bump, while Brand Search is paying more for the same outcome. The 41% CPA increase isn't a campaign-wide problem — it's almost entirely a Brand Search issue. Below.
Online Course — the engine is running
Budget $95/day · Status: Limited by Search Volume · tCPA $280
⭐ Winning — keep goingWhat's behind these numbers
CTR jumped from 10% → 13.6%. That's the May 14 page-speed fix finally maturing — when our Quality Score rebuilds, ads show in better positions for the same bid. We're paying basically the same CPC ($5.31) but getting more clicks and more conversions per dollar.
Status is "Limited by Search Volume" not "Limited by Budget." That means we're capturing essentially all the available demand at $95/day on our current keywords. To grow further, we need new keywords (we added 5 on May 26) or better QS (compounding from page speed fix). Throwing more budget at this campaign without those won't work.
Top keywords (by spend)
| Keyword | QS | Cost | Conv | CPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| "lash course" | 8 | $333 | 1.3 | $250 |
| "lash extension course" | 7 | $165 | 1.0 | $165 |
| "online lash course" | 8 | $124 | 0 | — |
| "eyelash course" | 8 | $117 | 1.0 | $117 |
| "eyelash extension course" | 8 | $88 | 0 | — |
QS distribution: 11 keywords at QS 8 · 7 keywords at QS 7 · 7 keywords at QS 6 · 6 keywords at QS 3-4 (the LP Experience holdouts). Only 1 low-QS keyword still spending: "lash technician course" at QS 4, but only $13.64 in 14 days — minor.
Brand Search — paying more for the same outcome
Budget $20/day · Status: Limited by Budget · tCPA $120
⚠ Needs interventionWhat's actually happening
The May 17 tCPA bump ($90 → $120) caused Google to bid more aggressively on every "lash nation" search variant — not just buying-intent ones. Look at the spend per keyword:
| Keyword | QS | Cost | Conv | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [lash nation] (the actual brand search) | 10 | $160 | 3.0 | ✅ Working — $53 CPA |
| [lash nation reviews] | 7 | $51 | 0 | ⚠ Informational query, not buying |
| [lash nation course] | 10 | $24 | 0 | Should convert eventually, hold |
| [lash nation supplies] | 10 | $16 | 0 | ⚠ Old name searchers, wrong intent |
| [lashnation] | 10 | $9 | 0 | Brand variant, hold |
The $160 going to "[lash nation]" generated all 3 conversions at a $53 CPA. That's working perfectly. The other $98 went to non-buying variants ("reviews", "supplies", etc.) which Google bid up aggressively after the tCPA increase.
Average CPC also jumped from $3.02 to $5.50 — we're now paying 82% more per click on average. Some of this is genuine — Australian Beauty School is bidding on our brand at 26.8% IS — but a lot is Google over-investing in low-intent brand variants.
Fix this in 5 minutes at the May 31 review
- HighAdd negative keywords on Brand Search:
reviews,supplies,login,contact,phone,address,complaints— phrase match. Stops Google bidding aggressively on informational queries that don't convert. - HighLower tCPA from $120 back to $90-100. The $120 was too aggressive for the brand auction. We're already at 79% IS with 77% absolute top — we don't need to bid higher to win.
In-Salon — hidden winner (Google undercounts it)
Budget $20/day · Status: Limited by Budget · tCPA $380
⭐ Generating revenue Google can't seeWhat the dashboard doesn't show
3 in-salon enrolments closed in the last 14 days. Google only credits 0.33 of those to this campaign — and 1 of them is credited to Brand Search (the searcher saw In-Salon's ad first, then later searched "lash nation" and clicked Brand Search, so Brand Search gets the last-click credit). The other 2 came through non-paid channels (organic, IG, word-of-mouth).
Real ROI of this campaign over 14 days: $266 spend → at least 1 directly-attributable enrolment ($1,997) and assist work on 2 others ($3,994). Even crediting only the 1 direct enrolment, that's a 7.5x ROAS — Google just gives the credit to the wrong campaign. The campaign is working; the attribution model isn't.
What's also real: Search impression share climbed from 26% → 40%. The May 17 budget bump is doing exactly what it should — buying us more visibility. We're still hitting the budget ceiling 34% of the time.
Recommendation
- HighBump in-salon budget $20 → $30/day at the May 31 review. Lost IS Budget says we have room to spend. At $30/day we should see 2-3 conversions in the next 14 days, which is the volume threshold to actually evaluate this campaign properly.
- MedWatch for an Australian Beauty School squeeze. They outrank us 65.61% of the time when both appear (next section). At higher budget we'll lose to them more often unless QS catches up.
Who's actually outranking us — and what to do about it
Same 14-day window · Auction Insights from all 3 campaigns
Brand Search — we own our brand
| Competitor | Impression Share | Outranks us |
|---|---|---|
| Lash Nation (us) | 75.26% | — |
| Australian Beauty School | 26.80% | 4.76% of the time |
| Lash Prodigy | 11.34% | 0% (we always rank above) |
| islashboutique.com | <10% | 0% |
| lashmer.com | <10% | 0% |
When we appear, we're absolute-top 97.26% of the time. Australian Beauty School is the only competitor consistently appearing on our brand searches — they outrank us less than 5% of the time. Brand auction is essentially won.
Online Course — crowded market, we're at 25% IS
| Competitor | Impression Share | Outranks us |
|---|---|---|
| Australian Beauty School | 85.71% | 82% of the time |
| nib.edu.au | 49.03% | 59% |
| tafecourses.com.au | 47.18% | 59% |
| islashboutique.com | 36.77% | 54% |
| onlinecoursesaustralia.edu.au | 33.30% | 50% |
| Lash Nation (us) | 25.04% | — |
| lashprodigy.co | 21.75% | 53% |
Australian Beauty School dominates this space at 86% IS. They're a well-funded RTO (Registered Training Organisation) with course bundle volumes we can't match on budget alone. The path to ranking above them is not bidding more — it's two things: (1) compounding QS improvement (in progress, CTR proves it's working), and (2) niche positioning on our differentiators — TAE-qualified educator + included Business Course + intimate group sizes — which competitors don't have.
In-Salon — same Australian Beauty School problem
| Competitor | Impression Share | Outranks us |
|---|---|---|
| Australian Beauty School | 72.56% | 66% of the time |
| tafecourses.com.au | 45.79% | 45% |
| Lash Nation (us) | 38.84% | — |
| nib.edu.au | 35.87% | 43% |
| onlinecoursesaustralia.edu.au | 31.40% | 21% |
We're holding 39% IS in this market — actually decent given our $20/day budget vs national education providers. At $30/day budget post-review, we should pick up more of the ~25% Lost IS Rank.
What's working
1. The May 14 page speed fix is finally paying off (compounding)
Online Course CTR climbed from 10% to 13.6% — that's a Quality Score signal, which means our ads are now showing in better positions for the same bid. This effect compounds for 2-4 more weeks.
2. The Online Course budget bump was the right call
2.5x increase in conversion value on a 69% spend increase. CPA dropped 18%. This is exactly what a healthy scaling campaign looks like.
3. Brand Search dominance secured
75% impression share with 97% absolute-top-of-page rate. Australian Beauty School outranks us less than 5% of the time on our own brand. We own the auction when our budget can reach.
4. In-Salon visibility climbing
Search IS up 26% → 40%. The Day 21 budget bump is working as designed — we're being shown to more in-salon searchers in Sydney. Conversion volume needs another 14 days to settle.
What's not
1. Brand Search budget is leaking into non-buyer queries
$98 of $258 spend went to terms like "lash nation reviews" and "lash nation supplies" with 0 conversions. The Google algorithm started bidding aggressively on these after the tCPA bump. Negative keywords + tCPA reset fixes this in 5 minutes.
2. Australian Beauty School is the dominant rival in both course markets
86% IS on Online Course, 73% IS on In-Salon. We can't outspend them. The path forward is QS work + ranking on long-tail keywords + niche positioning (TAE credential + Business Course + intimate groups), not bid wars.
3. Conv value dropped on Brand Search
$3,669 → $1,966 (-46%) despite spending 3.5x more. The conversion count is flat (3 each period), but the average value per conv dropped meaningfully. Could be attribution timing (a large order falling outside the window) or genuinely smaller orders. Need 2 more weeks of data to confirm.
What we're doing Monday May 31 (Day 21 review)
- High · 5 minBrand Search — add 7 negative keywords:
reviews,supplies,login,contact,phone,address,complaints(all phrase match). Plugs the budget leak immediately. - High · 2 minBrand Search — lower tCPA from $120 to $95. We're already at 79% IS with 77% absolute top. Don't need to pay more per click to win an auction we're already winning.
- High · 2 minIn-Salon — bump budget $20 → $30/day. Search Impression Share climbing, Lost IS Budget held flat, conversion volume needs more reach to be evaluable.
- Med · 10 minIn-Person Sydney ad group — apply the 15 new headlines + 4 descriptions already prepared in
google-ads-MAY31-action-queue.md. Ad Strength: Average → Good. Free QS lift. - Med · 5 minOnline Course — hold steady at $95/day. Status is "Limited by Search Volume" not budget. Bumping further only helps if we add new keywords first. We added 5 on May 26 — wait 2 more weeks to see if those add headroom.
- Low · 5 minVerify "cheap" is added as account-level phrase-match negative (flagged May 26). Wrong fit for $697+ premium courses.
What we'll know in 14 days (next report June 12)
By the next 14-day window (May 29 – June 11):
- Whether the Brand Search fix recovers CPA to under $50 (target)
- Whether In-Salon at $30/day produces 2-3 conversions (volume threshold for proper evaluation)
- Whether Online Course QS keeps climbing (CTR target: 15%+)
- Whether the May 26 new keywords start showing up in the converted search terms
"Limited by Search Volume" isn't the cap — it's the cue.
12 levers we haven't pulled yet, ordered by time-to-impact
The Online Course campaign hit "Limited by Search Volume" — which doesn't mean we've exhausted all possible buyers in Australia, just that we've maxed our current keyword list at current Quality Score. We always planned for this plateau. The next phase moves up the funnel from intent capture to demand creation, while compounding channels build in the background.
Layer 1 — Squeeze more from Google (Days 0-30, no new spend)
| Move | Time | Expected lift |
|---|---|---|
| Add 10-20 more long-tail keywords from search terms report | 30 min | +15-25% IS |
| Apply Quality Score work (new RSAs, headline themes) | 1 hour | +20-30% CTR over 4-6 weeks |
| Test broad match on 2-3 highest-intent keywords with tCPA cap | 15 min | 20-40% lift if it works for us (kill in 14 days if not) |
| Sydney/Melbourne/Brisbane geographic variants | 1 hour | Modest fill of search-volume gap |
Realistic ceiling for Google Search alone: $130-150/day on Online Course over 60-90 days through these moves. Not the wall yet.
Layer 2 — June lead events: webinar + masterclass (Days 14-30, list building + creative)
Two warm-up plays in June before launching cold Meta in July. These build the audience, capture leads, and produce the live-event creative that makes a cold Meta launch work much better than going in completely cold.
| Event | Timing | What it does |
|---|---|---|
| Online webinar — hosted live by Shanai, ~60-75 min teach + offer, replay available 48h. Topic anchored on the verified-income proof story ("how women like Eve, Natalie, Taylor and Bianca actually built $2,000+/week lash businesses from home"). | Mid-June (~June 17-19, Tue/Wed for peak live attendance) | Email list growth · warm pool for July Meta · webinar-only enrolment incentive at close · captures showcase clips for cold-ad creative |
| In-salon masterclass / open day — Shanai live demo + Q&A at the Marsden Park salon, 2-3 hours, capped at 8-12 attendees so it stays intimate. Free or low-ticket (the ticket itself isn't the point — the bodies in the room are). | Late June (~June 24-27) | Local Sydney awareness · in-salon enrolment funnel · candid video testimonials captured on the day · GBP review boost from attendees afterward |
Why these two before Meta cold (the strategic argument):
- Warm audience compounds cold Meta CPAs. Webinar registrants + masterclass attendees grow the Meta retargeting pool from 17.7K to ~25K+. Retargeting CPA is roughly 1/3 of cold CPA — every warm body we add in June reduces what July's cold Meta has to find from scratch.
- Live-event content fuels cold creative. Webinar replay clips + masterclass attendee testimonials + behind-the-scenes salon footage = ad creative we can rotate through cold Meta for weeks without burnout. Better than launching on the same handful of clips we already have.
- Pre-validates the funnel. If the webinar converts at expected rates (typical: 5-10% live-attendee → enrolment, 1-3% registrant → enrolment), we know the offer story is landing before scaling spend behind it. If it doesn't convert, we have a much cheaper "no" than $3K of cold Meta.
- Free/cheap traffic source. Promote via existing IG (17.7K), the cleaned email list (post-NeverBounce), and the Meta retargeting we already pay $20/day for. No new ad budget needed to fill seats — at worst, a few hundred to top up if organic doesn't hit numbers.
Approval needed: green-light on running both events + a small event-related budget (~$200-400 for masterclass refreshments / venue prep + up to $300 of paid traffic pushing webinar registrations if organic doesn't fill seats). Asbaat handles the technical setup — webinar registration page, reminder sequence, replay delivery, masterclass logistics support, post-event email follow-up, creative capture coordination. Shanai presents and delivers.
Layer 3 — Cold Meta acquisition (Days 30-60, July onwards)
The May 5 strategic call with Joel deferred cold Meta until Google maxed. We're approaching that line now — and we'll be in a much stronger position to launch after the June lead events have grown the warm pool, sharpened the offer story, and stocked the creative bank. This is the natural next layer once intent capture on Search plateaus — we shift from people actively searching for lash courses to women who fit the avatar but haven't searched yet (mum on maternity leave, 9-to-5 escapee, salon worker, career-change beauty pro).
What we'd need approval on:
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Additional monthly spend | ~$3,000/month for a meaningful test (covers daily budget + creative rotation) |
| Recommended launch window | Early July (~July 8-10, ~10 days after June masterclass wraps — gives time to edit live-event footage into ad creative) |
| Test duration before evaluating | 14 days minimum — won't make scale-or-kill decision before then |
| Realistic incremental revenue | ~$8,000-$10,000/month at conservative learning-phase economics. Improves once we identify winners and scale them. Should land sharper-than-baseline because June's warm pool + better creative go into it from day 1. |
Math at the simplest level: $3K spend → realistic ~12 incremental online course sales/month = $8,364 in revenue = ~2.78x ROAS even in the learning phase. Profitable from week 1, scales as we identify which creative + audience combinations win and concentrate budget there.
Asbaat will handle the technical setup — audience targeting, ad structure, creative rotation, budget management, kill/scale decisions. Joel + Shanai see the dashboard numbers + 14-day reports. Approving cold Meta means we move from "Google-only paid acquisition" to "Google + Meta layered" — a strategic shift, not a tactical change.
Other plays once Meta cold is established:
- YouTube Demand Gen — uses Shanai's organic content as ad material. Replaces deprecated Discovery ads.
- Google Display retargeting — separate from Meta retargeting, reaches site visitors who didn't convert
- TikTok Ads small test ($15-25/day) — lash content performs natively, Q3 timing
Layer 4 — Compound SEO + AI channels (Days 60-180, highest long-term ROI)
These don't move next month's ROAS. They compound over 6-12 months and become free recurring traffic.
| Channel | Status | Expected payoff window |
|---|---|---|
| SEO content cluster | 1 post live · 5 upgraded awaiting Joel · 1 earnings post drafted · plan: 1/week | First AI Overview citations 60-90 days · recurring organic 6+ months |
| AI Overview citations | llms.txt live · schema deployed · Answer Capsules on product pages | Already converting (2 ChatGPT orders since May 13) |
| Featured.com authority backlinks | Prep guide built for Shanai (30 min execution) | 3 answers/month × ~33% acceptance = ~12 editorial backlinks/year |
| GBP local SEO | Prep guide built for Shanai (30 min execution) | 60-90 days to lift Sydney "lash course near me" searches |
| Reviews growth | Review business card designed in GBP guide | Each 10 new ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ = measurable conversion rate lift |
| Spotify + Mozilla backlink hacks | Not started · ~1 hour each | DR 93-95 dofollow links — minor but free |
Layer 5 — Product expansion (when ready for bigger bets)
Real long-term growth comes from new revenue streams, not just more traffic to existing ones.
| Move | Status | Revenue potential |
|---|---|---|
| Business Course as standalone product | Planned May 9 (Joel idea), not yet built | $297-$597 ticket. Sell to beauty pros + existing online students who didn't buy in-salon |
| Online → In-Salon upsell sequence | Exists implicitly, not actively marketed | 5-10% take rate of online grads on a $1,997 in-salon offer = serious recurring revenue |
| High-ticket "educator of educators" course | Future play (Joel mentioned May 5) | $4-5K ticket × 50 sales/year = $200-250K |
The 90-day sequencing
Days 1-14 (May 31 – June 14):
- Apply the May 31 review actions (negative keywords, In-Salon budget bump, ad strength fixes)
- Publish the 7 upgraded blog posts (1-2 per week) once Joel approves
- Ship the GBP + Featured.com guides + NAP audit guide to Shanai
- Plan and promote the June webinar + masterclass — registration page live, IG + email + retargeting promotion starts
Days 14-30 (June 14 – June 30):
- Run the online webinar mid-June — capture replay, capture registrant emails, follow up with non-attendees
- Run the in-salon masterclass late June — capture testimonial videos, before/after shots, behind-the-scenes footage
- Edit live-event content into ad creative for the July Meta launch
- Continue weekly blog publishing — Featured.com + GBP signals start to register
Days 30-60 (July):
- Launch the Meta cold acquisition test with creative pulled from June's live events + the warm pool already pre-grown (Asbaat handles technical setup — Joel approves the additional monthly spend)
- 14-day learning phase — no scale or kill decisions until late July
- SEO content cluster continues compounding in the background
Days 60-90 (August):
- If Meta cold's data is hitting our target CPA: Asbaat scales the spend up another tier
- Build the Business Course standalone product page
- First Sydney suburb city pages (SEO P11 — for In-Salon local search)
- Add YouTube Demand Gen as a parallel test if Meta cold is profitable
- Plan whether to repeat the webinar / masterclass cadence quarterly (high-leverage if Q2 numbers hold up)
Realistic 90-day upside: Squeezed Google +30-50% revenue · Meta cold +50-100% incremental (if it works) · Compounding SEO +50-100% over 6-12 months. The plateau on Google Search is the natural cue to layer in demand creation — exactly what Joel and I agreed on the May 5 call. We're on schedule, not stuck.
The real account ROAS is closer to 6x — Google just can't see all of it.
Google's dashboard says 3.83x ROAS. But that excludes the 3 real in-salon enrolments (~$5,991) that the campaign assisted but Google credited elsewhere. Including those — real account ROAS is closer to 6x. Every $1 in is returning $5-6 out. That's a healthy paid acquisition channel that's actually under-reported, not over-reported.
Online Course is the engine — keep it running. Brand Search needs a 5-minute fix. In-Salon needs another 2 weeks at slightly more budget. Australian Beauty School is the rival to watch, but we beat them on niche positioning, not bid size.
If you only do one thing this week: approve the Brand Search negative keywords + tCPA reset on Monday. That alone recovers ~$50/week in wasted brand-spend.